JP Morgan AM: Consumer confidence continues to rebound
November’s US consumer confidence data suggests the US consumer is growing more confident in the economic outlook, with the latest reading the strongest since mid-2023. Consumers’ assessment of the US labour market was especially notable.
Pushing against the recent weakness in non-farm payroll numbers, optimism around future job availability reached its highest level in almost three years. Economic resilience in the US has caused investors to trim expectations for rate cuts next year, and markets now expect only three further cuts by the end of 2025 rather than the five implied by the September Federal Reserve (Fed) projections. If consumer confidence in the labour market is backed up by upcoming payrolls releases it seems likely the Fed will have to similarly rethink the path for policy next year.
